Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b8…5278 other 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,595 (-22%) realized −$3,586 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$4,319
14 days−$3,918
30 days−$3,917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$2,380
sports 23% −$1,680
crypto 1% +$135
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 40% -44.0%
≤30d 92 -12.4% -20.8% 49% 46% -31.6%
≤90d 92 -12.4% -20.8% 49% 46% -31.6%
all 92 -12.4% -20.8% 49% 46% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 46% -31.6%
10% -28.4% 34% -38.1%
15% -35.3% 24% -44.1%
20% -41.6% 15% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$129 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,586
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage14d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +13%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -87%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +33%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$14 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $52 −$27 -52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$34 +167%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $183 −$168 -92%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $121 +$19 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $121 +$69 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $182 −$180 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$130 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $509 −$495 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$15 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $29 15m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 27m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 22h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 24h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 202 history records