Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b6…09b2 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 239L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$47
sports 24% −$20
culture 8% −$8
crypto 7% −$5
politics 7% −$6
economics 4% −$3
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage133d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $947 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $249 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $504 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $675 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $187 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,229 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $133 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $363 +$1 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $309 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 3h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 4h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 5h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 14h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 16h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 17h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 20h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 29h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 30h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 34h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 34h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 35h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 47h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1433 history records