Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b1…34ed crypto 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -43.6% -49.0% 28% 28% -17.7%
≤30d 21 -27.3% -34.3% 38% 33% -14.0%
≤90d 21 -27.3% -34.3% 38% 33% -14.0%
all 21 -27.3% -34.3% 38% 33% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 33% -14.0%
10% -40.6% 33% -22.2%
15% -46.3% 33% -29.7%
20% -51.6% 33% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$9 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records