Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0b1…39da other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$93 (+23%) realized +$98 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$34
other 43% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +78.9% +61.8% 57% 57% +15.2%
≤30d 7 +78.9% +61.8% 57% 57% +15.2%
≤90d 7 +78.9% +61.8% 57% 57% +15.2%
all 7 +78.9% +61.8% 57% 57% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.8% 57% +15.2%
10% +46.4% 57% +4.2%
15% +32.2% 43% -5.9%
20% +19.2% 43% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$30 -60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 +$32 +64%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $66 −$25 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +188%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$49 +473%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 42m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 85¢ $132 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $101 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 82¢ $83 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $6 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $51 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $32 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $25 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $20 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $20 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.00 · official $96.43 · 18 history records