Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A0 0xa0b1…d4d9 finance 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$355 (+13%) realized +$431 · open −$76
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$78
finance 30% +$168
world 1% +$3
sports 1% −$18
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 0% -3.2%
≤90d 28 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% +5.9%
all 28 +18.9% +7.6% 64% 50% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 50% +5.9%
10% -2.7% 29% -4.2%
15% -12.1% 21% -13.5%
20% -20.7% 14% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$431
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage86d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 48¢ 41¢ $494 $418 −$76 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 22 $156 +$11 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 20 $309 +$86 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 08 $33 +$7 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $56 +$28 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 04 $2 +$1 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 04 $31 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 01 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Apr 30 $2 +$8 +391%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 18 $71 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 16 $12 −$6 -53%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $2 $0 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 14 $13 −$3 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 14 $40 +$5 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 09 $25 +$4 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 09 $35 +$19 +55%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 09 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 07 $5 $0 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $6 −$1 -14%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$2 -17%
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Apr 07 $1 $0 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $1 $0 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 01 $1 $0 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 01 $20 +$3 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $130 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 45¢ $102 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $151 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 71¢ $140 38h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 71¢ $66 38h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $87 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $2 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $54 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $95 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $234 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $198 7d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $26 17d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $36 17d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $51 17d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $21 17d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $136 22d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $67 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $2 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $72 27d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $49 28d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $48 28d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $102 28d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $32 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $39 29d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 29d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 72¢ $115 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 30d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $13 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.10 · official $418.10 (match) · 225 history records