Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0ae…be05 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate75%182W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$8
14 days−$52
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$107
other 11% +$49
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.3% -18.9% 74% 16% -8.0%
≤30d 47 -4.5% -13.6% 79% 28% -14.9%
≤90d 134 -18.7% -26.5% 72% 12% -11.0%
all 242 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 28% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 28% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 21% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 16% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses182 / 60
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage563d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -57%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +113%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -71%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$4 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $40 +$5 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $5 +$3 +56%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$8 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $109 $0 +0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $108 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $104 +$4 +4%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $100 −$75 -75%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $177 +$2 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 26 $162 +$5 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 31m
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $60 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $60 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up $1 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $60 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $20 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 81¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $55 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $4 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 97¢ $45 7d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 86¢ $40 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 7d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 99¢ $40 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 556 history records