Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0ae…d32c crypto 150 markets active 5d ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,329 (-15%) realized −$6,329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%52W / 98L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,217
14 days−$2,217
30 days−$4,625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +155.6% +131.3% 33% 33% -33.9%
≤30d 24 +114.4% +94.0% 21% 21% -56.0%
≤90d 30 +98.5% +79.6% 33% 33% -40.1%
all 150 -7.0% -15.8% 35% 28% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 28% -32.3%
10% -23.9% 24% -38.7%
15% -31.2% 18% -44.7%
20% -38.0% 14% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$168 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses52 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage128d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $1,156 −$920 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3,848 −$1,877 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2,084 −$400 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $712 −$688 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $206 −$196 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $194 −$183 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $231 +$69 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $314 +$178 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $230 +$168 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $314 +$2,132 +680%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 22 $1,073 −$1,040 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 22 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 22 $319 −$305 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 22 $74 −$69 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 22 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 22 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 22 $110 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 22 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 22 $121 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 22 $5 +$106 +1978%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 22 $235 +$70 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 22 $209 +$234 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 22 $411 +$277 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $312 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $240 +$211 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 21 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 21 $83 −$82 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 21 $98 +$45 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 21 $48 −$13 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8AM ET Feb 21 $42 −$23 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10AM ET Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8PM ET Feb 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 19 $150 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7PM ET Feb 19 $122 −$60 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 18 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 18 $31 +$70 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 18 $30 +$32 +106%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 18 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $164 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $370 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $350 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $436 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $635 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $615 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $536 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $622 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1,160 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1,343 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $151 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $568 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $835 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $987 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $259 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $655 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $745 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $206 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $194 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 620 history records