Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0ac…1649 sports 125 markets active 4d ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%79W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$5
sports 34% −$196
world 17% +$132
tech 5% +$52
economics 3% −$1
politics 3% +$1
finance 2% +$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 40% -50.6%
≤30d 5 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 40% -50.6%
≤90d 15 -74.6% -77.0% 13% 13% -75.1%
all 124 -4.8% -13.9% 64% 55% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 55% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 39% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 25% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses79 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage188d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-14? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 02 $92 −$92 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Apr 02 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Ch Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? Mar 28 $156 −$28 -18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $40 +$16 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $40 +$13 +33%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 18 $5 +$4 +88%
Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots Mar 18 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 +$26 +524%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $10 +$21 +212%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 17 $30 +$4 +12%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $50 +$12 +25%
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Mar 17 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Champ Mar 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE PLAYERS Ch Mar 16 $30 +$21 +69%
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Mar 15 $75 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 14 $10 $0 +5%
BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 14 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $30 +$6 +21%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $40 +$6 +15%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Gr Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Playoffs Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Norfolk State Spartans Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs Mousquetaires (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Nexus (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-13? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? SELL No 67¢ $128 80d
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? BUY No 82¢ $156 88d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 90d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 90d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 90d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 90d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 90d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 90d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Level UP 53¢ $10 90d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY FaZe 60¢ $10 90d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 90d
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers BUY Howard Bison 53¢ $5 91d
Liberty Flames vs. George Mason Patriots BUY Liberty Flames 76¢ $20 91d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 91d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 91d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 91d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 91d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 91d
Suns vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 80¢ $50 92d
Warriors vs. Wizards BUY Warriors 89¢ $30 92d
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 92d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $92 93d
Hurricanes vs. Lightning BUY Hurricanes 82¢ $75 94d
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Carlos Alcaraz 56¢ $10 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records