Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0a9…5862 crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$188 (-2%) realized −$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%98W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$193
14 days−$323
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$282
sports 45% −$230
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -9.0% -17.6% 60% 48% -13.9%
≤30d 173 -9.3% -18.0% 55% 44% -14.1%
≤90d 179 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 44% -14.4%
all 179 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 44% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 44% -14.4%
10% -25.7% 34% -22.5%
15% -32.9% 23% -30.0%
20% -39.5% 16% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses98 / 81
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage35d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$14 +28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $56 +$85 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$11 -51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $39 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$8 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 −$17 -42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$10 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$27 +48%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $49 −$43 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$49 -96%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $94 −$93 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$6 +16%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $257 +$30 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $79 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $133 −$37 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $76 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 54¢ $33 4m
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 39¢ $24 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $44 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $141 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $37 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 46¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 77¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 4¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 81¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $38 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records