Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa0a8…e606 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,026 (+7%) realized +$3,054 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%54W / 38L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 382d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1,243
finance 17% −$794
tech 14% +$1,385
politics 9% +$1,458
world 1% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 60% -16.4%
≤30d 21 -12.1% -20.5% 57% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 69 -16.3% -24.2% 55% 51% -11.8%
all 92 -12.8% -21.1% 59% 49% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 49% -8.4%
10% -28.7% 35% -17.2%
15% -35.6% 26% -25.2%
20% -41.9% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$546) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$247 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized+$3,054
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses54 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage382d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Up 68¢ 65¢ $700 $672 −$28 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2,797 −$1,026 -37%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $603 +$112 +19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,525 +$836 +55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,422 +$161 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $615 −$615 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $407 −$112 -28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $1,311 +$266 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $342 −$342 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,315 +$743 +56%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $256 +$27 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $559 +$304 +54%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $614 −$60 -10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $732 +$67 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $410 −$23 -6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $838 −$136 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $421 −$30 -7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $234 +$184 +79%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $2,284 −$1,508 -66%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 21 $965 +$525 +54%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $541 +$107 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $1,235 +$49 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $306 −$101 -33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $1,071 −$50 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $660 +$412 +62%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $417 +$242 +58%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $194 +$202 +104%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $181 +$21 +12%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 07 $450 −$435 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $143 +$58 +41%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $111 +$32 +29%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5? May 06 $81 −$24 -30%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $850 −$29 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $733 −$578 -79%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $559 +$71 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $477 −$70 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $365 −$172 -47%
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $250 −$49 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $332 −$29 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $292 +$140 +48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $350 −$343 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $541 +$102 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $330 −$326 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $586 −$231 -39%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $546 +$105 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $300 +$36 +12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $250 +$166 +66%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $338 +$93 +28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $277 +$96 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $350 +$274 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $101 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $101 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $304 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 64¢ $203 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 76¢ $151 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 22¢ $134 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 78¢ $252 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 34¢ $271 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 61¢ $51 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 47¢ $102 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 40¢ $102 19h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 54¢ $1,018 24h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $102 24h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 61¢ $102 24h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 60¢ $203 24h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 56¢ $305 27h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 58¢ $102 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 44¢ $127 31h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 51¢ $306 38h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 93¢ $501 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 56¢ $102 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 75¢ $148 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 47¢ $102 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 48¢ $102 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 69¢ $304 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 50¢ $218 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $102 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $102 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 61¢ $102 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 55¢ $713 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.34 · official $662.00 · 440 history records