Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0a6…2a95 sports 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$95 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%91W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$700
14 days−$425
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$247
other 40% −$95
crypto 4% −$63
world 1% −$16
weather 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -38.7% -44.5% 34% 31% -32.3%
≤30d 110 -25.9% -33.0% 42% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 202 -29.9% -36.6% 38% 36% -19.4%
all 218 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 40% -8.7%
10% -35.7% 39% -17.5%
15% -41.9% 37% -25.5%
20% -47.6% 32% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$23 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses91 / 127
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions4
Markets (closed)218 / 231
History coverage180d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 52¢ 100¢ $50 $96 +$46 (+92%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 53¢ 78¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 +$17 +34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $51 +$38 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $74 −$31 -41%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$25 +83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $61 +$20 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$16 -78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $10 +$24 +238%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$10 -47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$3 -64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 +$20 +150%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$79 +156%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$33 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $71 +$27 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$22 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $30 +$6 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 +$27 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $74 +$27 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$41 +203%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 53¢ $10 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 42¢ $67 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 17¢ $10 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $51 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 52¢ $20 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 52¢ $30 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $41 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $3 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $41 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 32¢ $20 16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U BUY 5¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $50 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $20 26h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $51 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $30 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 39h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $61 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.53 · official $216.35 (match) · 500 history records