Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa09d…7aa3 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$4 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
other 39% −$5
sports 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.2% +9.6% 40% 40% -8.8%
≤30d 5 +21.2% +9.6% 40% 40% -8.8%
≤90d 5 +21.2% +9.6% 40% 40% -8.8%
all 5 +21.2% +9.6% 40% 40% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 40% -8.8%
10% -0.9% 40% -17.5%
15% -10.4% 20% -25.5%
20% -19.2% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -55%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$3 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $50 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $50 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.20 · official $55.20 (match) · 17 history records