Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T11:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa09d…af80
weather · 674 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,296 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,475 · open +$179
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,678
Realized−$3,475
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses386 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions15
Markets (closed)661 / 674
History coverage98d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 15 History 661 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,281
7 days−$2,062
14 days−$2,301
30 days−$2,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $400 $431 +$31 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $200 $377 +$177 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? No 92¢ 90¢ $355 $344 −$11 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 96¢ 90¢ $300 $281 −$19 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $180 $184 +$4 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $160 $163 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $155 $155 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Team WE 69¢ 100¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? No 86¢ 57¢ $176 $118 −$58 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? No 76¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 25? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $299 $0 −$299 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 17? No 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 13 $1 −$2,277 -212481%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $399 −$399 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $951 +$52 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $165 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$15 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $155 −$21 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $88 −$60 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $454 +$61 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $882 +$34 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,102 +$33 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $842 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$79 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $551 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$26 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 −$34 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,989 +$38 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +9%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$8 +16%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $150 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $551 +$14 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$9 +17%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $301 +$32 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $26 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,101 +$17 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $800 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $300 +$3 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $953 +$19 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% −$5,904
crypto 9% −$615
sports 3% −$128
world 2% +$6,055
finance 0% −$27
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $11 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $5 39m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 69¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $301 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1,004 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 95¢ $300 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $500 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $101 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $168 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $204 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $316 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 84¢ $151 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 85¢ $134 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $200 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $15 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $69 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $200 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $301 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $90 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $90 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -0.5% -10.0% 83% 25% -8.5%
≤30d 215 -4.2% -13.4% 80% 20% -9.6%
≤90d 442 -4.8% -13.8% 70% 21% -9.9%
all 661 -0.9% -10.3% 58% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 25% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 17% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 15% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,678.01 · official $2,678.01 (match) · 3500 history records