Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa09b…5162 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 47L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$13
politics 12% −$9
other 10% +$33
sports 2% +$53
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 51 +2.0% -7.7% 24% 16% -7.5%
all 61 +1.3% -8.3% 23% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 13% -9.2%
10% -17.1% 13% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 13% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage576d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 18 $141 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $7 +$8 +129%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $133 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $136 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $141 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $132 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $275 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $14 +$12 +83%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 06 $30 +$45 +150%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 31 $24 +$34 +144%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $31 +$29 +96%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 26 $19 +$23 +117%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 12d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 27d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $90 31d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $141 31d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $141 31d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $7 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.90 · official $40.90 (match) · 243 history records