Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa096…31d6 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$59 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%49W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$167
14 days+$99
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$98
sports 33% −$141
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +30.8% +18.3% 69% 69% +16.6%
≤30d 20 +4.6% -5.3% 55% 55% -6.6%
≤90d 49 +18.1% +6.8% 65% 65% +2.8%
all 91 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 54% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 54% -9.3%
10% -21.0% 54% -17.9%
15% -28.6% 53% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 48% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses49 / 42
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage167d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 54¢ 54¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 43¢ 16¢ $41 $16 −$25 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $52 +$57 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$67 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $38 +$53 +140%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$30 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$13 +55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $27 +$15 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$10 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $39 +$33 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $39 +$36 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $29 +$24 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $33 +$36 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $21 +$12 +57%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 16 $28 +$14 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $21 +$22 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 09 $18 +$12 +70%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 09 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $25 −$24 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $14 +$11 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 29 $14 +$18 +124%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Apr 18 $16 +$12 +72%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 18 $17 +$12 +70%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $17 +$10 +59%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 22 $20 +$11 +54%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 22 $20 +$16 +82%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Mar 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $35 45m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $42 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $66 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $52 29h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $52 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $61 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $38 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $29 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $27 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $24 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $31 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $37 8d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $39 26d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 26d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 53¢ $39 26d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 33d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 54¢ $29 33d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $30 35d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY West Ham United FC 65¢ $28 40d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 63¢ $21 40d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Burnley FC 61¢ $21 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.74 · official $49.74 (match) · 144 history records