Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa091…f1c1 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$768 (+16%) realized +$852 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%30W / 35L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$44
30 days+$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$483
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.2% +17.8% 50% 50% +99.9%
≤30d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 45% +1.7%
≤90d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 45% +1.7%
all 65 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 45% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 45% +1.7%
10% -18.4% 40% -8.1%
15% -26.3% 38% -16.9%
20% -33.5% 37% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$51 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$852
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses30 / 35
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage23d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Acend 36¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs Fluxo 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$1 -62%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $57 +$76 +133%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $27 +$41 +150%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $220 +$59 +27%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $28 +$32 +114%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $78 +$78 +100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $86 +$144 +167%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $163 +$80 +49%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $208 +$122 +59%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$148 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $47 +$225 +482%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $71 +$127 +177%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$125 +100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $143 +$132 +92%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $96 +$60 +62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $67 +$110 +162%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$74 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $176 −$144 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $164 +$115 +70%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $78 +$58 +74%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $116 +$83 +72%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-6.5) vs Legacy (+6.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $89 +$101 +114%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $74 +$62 +84%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$39 +78%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Pl Jun 09 $51 −$10 -20%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $35 +$62 +179%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $8 +$2 +18%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions SELL Fluxo 54¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions BUY Fluxo 46¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 36¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg 7¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner SELL Blitzkrieg 4¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 2 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg 10¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg 10¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner SELL Subtop De France 100¢ $132 5h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 42¢ $56 6h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner SELL Subtop De France 27¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 14¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 100¢ $68 6h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 40¢ $27 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 79¢ $66 9d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 79¢ $75 9d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 79¢ $79 9d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 46¢ $28 9d
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 89¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $28 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $13 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $7 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $9 12d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $19 12d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $156 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 213 history records