Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa091…60e6 crypto 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate72%197W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$27
other 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -5.7% -14.7% 63% 29% -15.7%
≤30d 275 -5.2% -14.2% 72% 36% -12.8%
≤90d 275 -5.2% -14.2% 72% 36% -12.8%
all 275 -5.2% -14.2% 72% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 36% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 20% -21.1%
15% -29.9% 13% -28.7%
20% -36.8% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses197 / 78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 9m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.57 · official $4.58 (match) · 709 history records