Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A0 0xa091…c65c other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%45W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$4
politics 5% −$8
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.0% +6.7% 75% 62% -6.8%
≤30d 16 -14.0% -22.2% 56% 50% -4.3%
≤90d 16 -14.0% -22.2% 56% 50% -4.3%
all 68 -5.0% -14.0% 66% 54% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 54% -8.4%
10% -22.3% 38% -17.2%
15% -29.8% 22% -25.2%
20% -36.7% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses45 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage577d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $132 −$77 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$55 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Selena Gomez married in 2025? Dec 01 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin all time high before 2026? May 06 $5 +$1 +18%
Will BTS announce a new world tour in 2025? Apr 01 $8 $0 +5%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 01 $1 $0 +9%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 01 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Feb 25 $1 $0 +22%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Feb 25 $1 $0 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Feb 10 $0 $0 -12%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31? Feb 10 $0 $0 +30%
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31? Feb 10 $0 +$1 +138%
Will Ken Martin be the next DNC chair? Feb 10 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight? Jan 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $0 $0 +46%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 20 $2 $0 +22%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $0 $0 +13%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? Jan 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 09 $1 $0 +15%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July? Jan 09 $1 $0 +16%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jan 09 $1 $0 +15%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Jan 09 $1 $0 +15%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 09 $0 $0 +24%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Jan 09 $1 $0 +19%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Jan 06 $1 $0 +10%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 06 $6 +$1 +22%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Jan 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025? Jan 06 $1 $0 +25%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 1-20 tries? Jan 06 $3 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $53 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $44 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 14d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $131 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.20 · official $161.20 (match) · 151 history records