Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa08f…9d13 politics 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,639 (-1%) realized −$1,639 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,186per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$38
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$100
other 40% +$17
sports 5% −$1,603
economics 2% −$4
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 120 -2.6% -11.9% 8% 7% -10.6%
all 131 -4.7% -13.7% 8% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -22.0% 6% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 6% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,694) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$17 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$1,639
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage98d
Avg bet$1,186
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $131 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $2,227 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 24 $2,279 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,850 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,209 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,513 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,456 −$3 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,048 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $847 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,242 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $908 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $75 +$67 +90%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,824 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $54 −$54 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $817 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $753 −$1 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $40 +$25 +62%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $414 +$2 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $3,708 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $330 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,603 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $448 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $996 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $894 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $494 22h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $494 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $508 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $509 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $298 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $298 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $501 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $502 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $347 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $347 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $474 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $475 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $434 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $131 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $435 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $364 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $303 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $303 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $312 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $293 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $293 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $401 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $402 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.91 · official $270.91 (match) · 479 history records