Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa08e…3559 crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$244 (+4%) realized +$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate70%69W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$7
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$84
other 7% −$70
sports 4% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -0.4% -9.9% 70% 52% -9.5%
≤30d 99 -1.4% -10.8% 70% 52% -11.2%
≤90d 99 -1.4% -10.8% 70% 52% -11.2%
all 99 -1.4% -10.8% 70% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 52% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 32% -19.7%
15% -27.1% 18% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 12% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$49 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses69 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage12d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 96¢ 96¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $151 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $57 −$42 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $129 −$126 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $117 +$37 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $172 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $168 +$58 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $141 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$43 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $112 +$47 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$65 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $70 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$48 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $75 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.72 · official $53.72 (match) · 731 history records