Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa08b…270c weather 211 markets active 5d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-22%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%89W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$34
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% −$44
crypto 50% −$27
finance 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 33% -28.7%
≤30d 210 -26.8% -33.8% 42% 33% -30.8%
≤90d 210 -26.8% -33.8% 42% 33% -30.8%
all 210 -26.8% -33.8% 42% 33% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 33% -30.8%
10% -40.1% 25% -37.4%
15% -45.9% 21% -43.5%
20% -51.2% 19% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses89 / 121
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 90¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.54 (match) · 404 history records