trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 72¢ | $32 | $33 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $25 | $30 | +$5 (+18%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $25 | $26 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $25 | $25 | +$0 (+1%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | No | 12¢ | 22¢ | $13 | $24 | +$10 (+78%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $25 | $22 | −$3 (-12%) |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 | Under | 69¢ | 68¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 51¢ | 46¢ | $6 | $5 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners | Over | 53¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| James Comey arrested by April 29? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $40 | $0 | −$40 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 | Jun 14 | $20 | +$11 | +53% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $39 | +$21 | +55% |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Jun 14 | $10 | +$7 | +73% |
| Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners | Jun 12 | $15 | +$6 | +39% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners | Jun 12 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $18 | +$8 | +44% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $30 | +$24 | +79% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 09 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| James Comey arrested by April 29? | Apr 29 | $45 | −$40 | -89% |
| Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? | Apr 29 | $15 | +$10 | +65% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Apr 29 | $6 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | Apr 29 | $140 | −$131 | -94% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 16 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Apr 16 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | Apr 16 | $232 | +$27 | +12% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 15 | $117 | −$19 | -16% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 14 | $50 | −$47 | -94% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 14 | $100 | +$22 | +22% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | Apr 14 | $14 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Apr 14 | $100 | −$98 | -98% |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Apr 10 | $65 | −$43 | -66% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 10 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Apr 10 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Apr 10 | $5 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? | Apr 08 | $20 | +$38 | +188% |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | Apr 06 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026? | Apr 02 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Ukraine vs. Albania: O/U 1.5 | Apr 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? | Apr 01 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? | Mar 31 | $25 | +$21 | +86% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +17.9% | +6.7% | 75% | 75% | +6.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +17.9% | +6.7% | 75% | 75% | +6.8% |
| ≤90d | 31 | -13.4% | -21.6% | 48% | 39% | -34.9% |
| all | 31 | -13.4% | -21.6% | 48% | 39% | -34.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.6% | 39% | -34.9% |
| 10% | -29.1% | 32% | -41.1% |
| 15% | -36.0% | 29% | -46.8% |
| 20% | -42.3% | 23% | -52.0% |