Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa088…d4a2 politics 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%10W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$9
other 18% −$3
sports 14% −$3
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% +$1
culture 4% −$1
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -16.9% -24.8% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 59 -12.7% -21.0% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -28.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -41.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses10 / 49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage238d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $448 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $221 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1 $0 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $213 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $1 $0 -32%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $223 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 05 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $1 $0 -50%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $437 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $443 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $442 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $217 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $441 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $451 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $225 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $371 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $217 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $2 $0 -10%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $3 $0 -11%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $4 $0 -7%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $225 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $225 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 12 $1 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $221 +$1 +1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $220 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $230 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $229 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $220 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $221 32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $213 110d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 112d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $143 113d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $143 117d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $83 118d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 118d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 119d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.48 · official $9.48 (match) · 232 history records