Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa087…d888 sports 519 markets active 5h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-2%) realized −$143 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%275W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$6
14 days+$188
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$118
other 27% −$286
world 5% −$18
crypto 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +13.6% +2.7% 52% 49% -9.0%
≤30d 185 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 50% -5.9%
≤90d 503 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 52% -12.1%
all 503 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 52% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 52% -12.1%
10% -18.7% 51% -20.5%
15% -26.5% 49% -28.2%
20% -33.7% 41% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses275 / 228
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions9
Markets (closed)503 / 519
History coverage82d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $21 $31 +$9 (+45%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 86¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $29 +$9 (+49%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 99¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oilers vs. Ducks Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$31 +153%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$11 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$20 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$13 -58%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +250%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$23 +112%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $18 +$13 +73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +257%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +92%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$23 +152%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $15 +$13 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $16 +$15 +91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 +$13 +210%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 −$3 -8%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $10 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $14 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $5 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $10 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 85¢ $14 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $14 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 59¢ $10 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $20 28h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $30 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 98¢ $32 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $3 46h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 47h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.85 · official $140.85 · 1089 history records