Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa086…5df5
other · 138 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$934 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$934 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$126
Realized−$934
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage118d
Avg bet$903
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $757 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $85 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $618 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $154 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $302 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $303 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $772 −$772 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,075 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,196 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,378 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $3,094 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,316 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $576 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,428 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $4,183 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,735 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3,416 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 14 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,485 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $2,451 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,789 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $858 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $1,870 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$610
politics 31% −$43
sports 19% −$274
economics 3% −$2
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 5h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $850 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $851 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $727 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $729 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $606 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $607 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $718 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $718 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $746 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $747 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $617 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $618 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $154 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $154 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $155 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $155 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 16d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $168 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $85 16d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $229 20d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $126 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $301 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $302 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.3% 6% 0% -16.5%
≤90d 103 -10.3% -18.8% 12% 6% -10.8%
all 137 -0.5% -9.9% 17% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 11% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 9% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.01 · official $126.01 (match) · 433 history records