Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa081…e7a0 weather 802 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,288 (-9%) realized −$1,224 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate83%657W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$269
14 days−$199
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -2.9% -12.1% 75% 73% -21.8%
≤30d 286 +3.0% -6.8% 80% 80% -16.3%
≤90d 794 +5.1% -4.9% 83% 76% -13.3%
all 794 +5.1% -4.9% 83% 76% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 76% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 31% -21.6%
15% -22.3% 13% -29.1%
20% -30.0% 6% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$29 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$1,224
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses657 / 137
Open positions8
Markets (closed)794 / 802
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? No 78¢ 96¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? No 80¢ 72¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? No 86¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? No 84¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 85¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? No 73¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? No 28¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $166 −$131 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$23 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$14 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $62 −$57 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $60 −$46 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 −$59 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $113 +$219 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $30 +$19 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$20 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$57 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 7¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 21¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $21 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $90 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.19 · official $99.19 (match) · 3500 history records