Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa07e…9851 other 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-4%) realized −$307 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%141W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$77
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$61
weather 16% +$42
crypto 12% −$157
finance 10% +$50
sports 7% −$6
world 3% −$183
tech 2% −$45
politics 1% −$4
culture 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -73.4% -75.9% 20% 12% -21.8%
≤30d 42 -67.2% -70.3% 21% 14% -21.3%
≤90d 93 -34.0% -40.2% 28% 19% -15.8%
all 475 -19.9% -27.5% 30% 19% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 19% -14.7%
10% -34.4% 17% -22.8%
15% -40.8% 15% -30.3%
20% -46.6% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$307
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses141 / 334
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)475 / 454
History coverage412d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $172 $150 −$22 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $76 $85 +$9 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $58 +$36 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$6 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 +$8 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $95 +$9 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $89 +$12 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$9 -52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +116%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $92 −$77 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 -14%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $80 +$32 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $80 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $9 −$9 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 01 $94 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $58 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $47 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $49 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $43 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $95 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.89 · official $234.89 (match) · 1561 history records