Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa07d…9a01 sports 588 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,793 (+6%) realized +$4,837 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%204W / 378L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$338est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,773
7 days+$9,319
14 days+$9,260
30 days+$9,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,154
other 9% +$8,262
crypto 1% −$21
world 0% −$41
culture 0% −$270
economics 0% −$106
politics 0% −$30
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.6% +5.5% 34% 34% +72.4%
≤30d 59 +14.8% +3.8% 44% 44% +69.6%
≤90d 184 -15.3% -23.4% 35% 32% +8.9%
all 582 -9.2% -17.9% 35% 33% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -3.7%
10% -25.7% 32% -12.9%
15% -32.9% 31% -21.3%
20% -39.5% 28% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$93 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized+$4,837
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses204 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$338
Open positions2
Markets (closed)582 / 588
History coverage416d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $210 $175 −$35 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $359 +$246 +69%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $436 −$51 -12%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $822 +$9,168 +1115%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $857 −$835 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $460 +$949 +206%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,501 +$411 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $376 +$887 +236%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,942 −$1,900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $205 +$672 +328%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $497 −$497 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $251 +$409 +162%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $359 +$164 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $330 +$110 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $904 +$639 +71%
Will TYLOO qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FlyQuest qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$31 +101%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$30 +146%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$25 +124%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 06 $20 +$22 +106%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $55 +$251 +459%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $112 +$79 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $85 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $605 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $359 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $384 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $436 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 4¢ $344 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 14¢ $513 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 35¢ $102 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 32¢ $460 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 78¢ $1,912 31h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,942 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $1,501 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $877 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $205 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 87¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 11¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 36¢ $191 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 12¢ $67 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 90¢ $1,063 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 24¢ $291 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $497 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 17¢ $101 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $5 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 6¢ $1 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 6¢ $35 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 6¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.07 · official $1,269.07 · 1694 history records