Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa07c…4d4e world 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% $0
politics 7% $0
other 6% +$5
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.5% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 30 +11.1% +0.5% 37% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 10% -8.9%
10% -9.1% 10% -17.7%
15% -17.9% 7% -25.6%
20% -25.9% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage448d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $123 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $174 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $17 +$1 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 03 $0 $0 +200%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +34%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 24 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 21 $3 +$4 +123%
Will the Jaguars draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 30 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 18m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 18m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $14 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $4 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $13 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $5 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $41 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $41 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $45 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $45 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $46 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records