Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A0 0xa07c…df43 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$16
crypto 30% +$14
politics 16% +$7
world 6% $0
finance 3% +$4
sports 3% +$6
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +35.1% +22.2% 80% 60% +0.3%
≤90d 23 +14.5% +3.6% 70% 43% -9.0%
all 44 +13.0% +2.2% 75% 32% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 32% -7.5%
10% -7.5% 18% -16.3%
15% -16.5% 11% -24.4%
20% -24.7% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)44 / 54
History coverage130d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 44¢ 31¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 +$3 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $13 +$3 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $9 +$3 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $12 +$3 +26%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $12 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $18 −$4 -20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 03 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 03 $18 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 03 $37 +$2 +6%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 04 $20 +$3 +16%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 12? Feb 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 11 $16 $0 +0%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 08 $3 +$2 +98%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Feb 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 08 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $19 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 14d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 14d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $20 14d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $19 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 14d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 21d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 94¢ $15 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 97¢ $16 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $15 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 73¢ $3 29d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 29d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 76¢ $12 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $9 29d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $8 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 83¢ $8 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 80¢ $10 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.59 · official $44.50 · 224 history records