Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa07c…46fb sports 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$254 (-17%) realized −$237 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%65W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$51
14 days−$274
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$276
other 10% −$53
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -40.7% -46.3% 22% 22% -28.0%
≤30d 219 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 28% -31.6%
≤90d 219 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 28% -31.6%
all 219 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 28% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 28% -31.6%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 26% -38.1%
15% -44.1% 25% -44.1%
20% -49.6% 23% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses65 / 154
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 223
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 46¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $6 +$15 +238%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $3 +$7 +226%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$2 +65%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $3 +$4 +119%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $3 −$2 -75%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $15 +$22 +146%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3 −$3 -92%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 +$5 +158%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $14 +$18 +124%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$2 +66%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $7 +$26 +365%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $8 +$13 +158%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$2 -65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $49 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 23¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $4 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $6 19h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 19h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $4 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $3 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $10 23h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes $2 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 24¢ $6 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 11¢ $1 46h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro $6 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $5 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $7 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $3 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo BUY GG Boom 23¢ $3 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $9 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $15 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 464 history records