Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa078…419a crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (737 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$45,404 (-18%) realized −$44,908 · open −$496
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11,184per market
Trades / day737.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$51,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$65,103
crypto 2% −$2,941
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (737 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -33.5% -39.9% 52% 29% -47.5%
≤30d 21 -33.5% -39.9% 52% 29% -47.5%
≤90d 21 -33.5% -39.9% 52% 29% -47.5%
all 21 -33.5% -39.9% 52% 29% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover737.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 29% -47.5%
10% -45.6% 24% -52.5%
15% ← realistic here -50.9% 10% -57.1%
20% -55.7% 0% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$592) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
37.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,143 vs −$8,012 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$51,119
Realized−$44,908
Unrealized−$496
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11,184
Trades / day737.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $51,616 $51,119 −$496 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $32,505 −$100 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $1,002 −$592 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,216 −$201 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $452 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $33,062 +$2,127 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22,628 +$10,332 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $99,630 −$76,965 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $132 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $52,211 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No $103 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $52,476 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $119 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $32,283 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $40 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,119.36 · official $51,119.36 (match) · 886 history records