Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa075…1662 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+18%) realized +$74 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%33W / 28L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$10
world 15% +$3
politics 6% −$2
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -63.0%
≤30d 5 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -63.0%
≤90d 61 +1.1% -8.5% 54% 43% -8.1%
all 61 +1.1% -8.5% 54% 43% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 43% -8.1%
10% -17.2% 39% -16.8%
15% -25.2% 30% -24.9%
20% -32.6% 21% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses33 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage58d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -28%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 14 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 13 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 13 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 07 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 07 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 06 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 05 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 05 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 05 $12 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 05 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 $0 -6%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 20 $15 +$16 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 20 $6 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 6¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $81 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 10¢ $7 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $6 20d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $9 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $17 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $12 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.78 · official $16.78 (match) · 182 history records