Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa073…da6f other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$156 (-0%) realized −$157 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%23W / 108L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$773
politics 43% −$53
sports 11% −$888
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -1.6% -11.0% 8% 0% -10.7%
all 131 -7.7% -16.5% 18% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 10% -9.7%
10% -24.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -31.7% 8% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,214) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$19 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,009
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses23 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage133d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $522 $523 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $486 $486 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $2,056 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $692 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,998 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,291 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $163 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $126 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,149 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $730 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 21 $815 −$815 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,798 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $2,319 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $570 +$2 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,302 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,766 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $486 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $315 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $315 4h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $456 5h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $456 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $475 26h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $475 29h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $495 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $496 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $475 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $475 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $468 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $469 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $467 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $468 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $523 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $877 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $878 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $901 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $847 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $848 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $894 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $895 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $846 20d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $847 20d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $661 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $662 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.77 · official $1,008.77 (match) · 428 history records