Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa06f…8a34 sports 555 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%258W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$30
other 11% +$13
world 1% +$20
crypto 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.9% -37.5% 29% 29% +3.7%
≤30d 14 -30.9% -37.5% 29% 29% +3.7%
≤90d 43 -16.0% -24.0% 35% 35% -5.8%
all 552 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 41% -9.5%
10% -21.9% 35% -18.1%
15% -29.4% 29% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses258 / 294
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)552 / 555
History coverage158d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$14 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$22 +71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$17 +91%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $2 +$7 +340%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $28 $0 -0%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs EVOS (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regu Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Apr 04 $13 +$11 +82%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alp Apr 04 $2 $0 -28%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $16 +$9 +56%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs ONIC (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regu Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-03-29? Mar 30 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 29 $2 $0 +23%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Team Liquid ID (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Mar 29 $3 +$11 +361%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-03-26? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Mandatory vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Mar 29 $1 +$2 +194%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $9 +$5 +57%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $1 $0 -18%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $2 +$2 +118%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $8 +$9 +112%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $23 −$4 -19%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-19? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $4 +$3 +79%
Valorant: Motiv Esports vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Pl Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $20 +$15 +74%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 29h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind SELL Bigetron by Vitality 99¢ $9 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 22¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $4 4d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 46¢ $20 73d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $2 74d
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $2 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.39 · official $6.39 (match) · 2025 history records