Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa06e…f56f other 6 markets active 4h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,345 (+56%) realized +$632 · open +$713
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day119.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$803
other 30% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.5% +17.2% 100% 67% +1.0%
≤30d 3 +29.5% +17.2% 100% 67% +1.0%
≤90d 3 +29.5% +17.2% 100% 67% +1.0%
all 3 +29.5% +17.2% 100% 67% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 67% +1.0%
10% +6.0% 33% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here -4.3% 33% -17.5%
20% -13.7% 33% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,485
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$713
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day119.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 8¢ 30¢ $280 $1,033 +$753 (+269%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $480 $440 −$40 (-8%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $40 +$27 +69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $798 +$91 +11%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $664 +$56 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 27¢ $27 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $480 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $112 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $227 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $304 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,485.43 · official $1,485.43 (match) · 158 history records