Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa06d…5af9 world 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$296 (+1%) realized +$370 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate47%71W / 80L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$939
14 days−$1,381
30 days−$771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$1,020
other 5% −$644
sports 3% +$187
tech 0% −$93
crypto 0% −$17
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -62.6% -66.1% 0% 0% -40.8%
≤30d 46 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 24% -12.0%
≤90d 151 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 28% -8.6%
all 151 -10.7% -19.2% 47% 28% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 28% -8.6%
10% -27.0% 19% -17.3%
15% -34.0% 15% -25.3%
20% -40.5% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$43 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses71 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage63d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 44¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 4¢ $80 $8 −$72 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $180 −$12 -6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2,310 −$790 -34%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $137 −$51 -37%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $10 +$69 +686%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $199 −$165 -83%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $530 −$67 -13%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $154 −$15 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $473 −$441 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $131 +$85 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$13 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $284 −$284 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $2,370 +$60 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1,326 +$158 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $449 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3,810 +$104 +3%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $134 −$56 -42%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,249 +$238 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 −$1 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $508 −$94 -18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $117 +$33 +28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $2,800 +$112 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $24 +$11 +47%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $20 +$3 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $500 +$9 +2%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4,406 +$333 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $280 −$2 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $209 +$77 +37%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o May 28 $19 −$9 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $30 +$9 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $3,223 +$458 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $90 +$19 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $56 −$36 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,589 +$51 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $67 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $101 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $101 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $30 6d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $30 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $20 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $39 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 9¢ $10 6d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $100 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $45 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $50 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $10 8d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $10 8d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $43 8d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 47¢ $5 8d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 50¢ $15 8d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $36 8d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $10 9d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $34 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $20 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $100 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $268 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $114 11d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $50 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 0¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.44 · official $107.44 (match) · 829 history records