Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa06c…ca74 politics 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$5
other 16% −$2
tech 13% $0
sports 12% −$2
world 12% −$1
crypto 9% −$2
culture 8% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$680) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage92d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $1,234 $0 +0%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 14 $62 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $55 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $659 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 03 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 03 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $690 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $73 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 0m
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $59 9m
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 15m
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 25m
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 31m
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $13 46m
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $854 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $313 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,168 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 95¢ $62 45d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 95¢ $44 45d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 95¢ $18 45d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $11 45d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 45d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $12 45d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $23 45d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 54d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 54d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 54d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 54d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $706 54d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $54 54d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $13 55d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $680 55d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $14 55d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records