Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa068…4c48 crypto 1148 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%495W / 653L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$30
14 days−$19
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$200
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 390 -24.8% -31.9% 41% 35% -20.7%
≤90d 1148 -15.9% -23.9% 43% 38% -17.0%
all 1148 -15.9% -23.9% 43% 38% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 38% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 31% -25.0%
15% -37.8% 24% -32.2%
20% -43.9% 18% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses495 / 653
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1148 / 1148
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records