Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa05e…9c78 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+21%) realized +$10 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$4
politics 5% $0
sports 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -4.3%
≤30d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -4.3%
≤90d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -4.3%
all 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.7% 20% -4.3%
10% -69.0% 20% -13.4%
15% -72.0% 20% -21.8%
20% -74.8% 20% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.45 · official $4.45 (match) · 14 history records