Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa05a…cc49 weather 434 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$711 (-2%) realized −$710 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%369W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$784
crypto 34% −$7
world 1% +$13
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 35 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 3% -10.9%
≤90d 311 -1.9% -11.2% 84% 9% -12.1%
all 430 -1.6% -11.0% 86% 8% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 8% -11.3%
10% -19.5% 3% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$710
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses369 / 61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)430 / 434
History coverage152d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? No 95¢ 94¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $121 −$19 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $83 +$4 +5%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $1 +$1 +129%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $55 −$41 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $94 −$39 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $89 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 26 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 23? May 23 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 18? May 20 $76 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 15? May 15 $75 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14? May 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13? May 13 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $157 −$157 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10? May 10 $154 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $148 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $108 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $108 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $107 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $107 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $106 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $105 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $105 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $103 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $103 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $102 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $102 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $121 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $121 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $120 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $120 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $118 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $118 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $117 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $118 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $113 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $113 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $112 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $112 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $111 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $111 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $110 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $109 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $108 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.96 · official $122.96 (match) · 1219 history records