Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa058…ff19 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$8
other 18% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 5% $0
politics 4% +$1
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 15% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 15% 8% -8.0%
all 35 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -8.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.7 per $1 lost it wins $8.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage479d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 97¢ 96¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $68 +$7 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 04 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $4 $0 -2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in March? Mar 24 $3 $0 -16%
Will the US sanction Ukraine before April? Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 22 $17 $0 +0%
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $42 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $48 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $28 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $23 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $7 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $40 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $47 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $47 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $47 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.69 · official $50.69 (match) · 90 history records