Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa056…b300 crypto 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$442 (-6%) realized −$442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate34%72W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$55
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -4.6% -13.7% 32% 9% -13.9%
≤30d 192 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 11% -11.5%
≤90d 213 -3.9% -13.1% 34% 11% -11.2%
all 213 -3.9% -13.1% 34% 11% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 11% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 3% -19.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses72 / 141
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.91 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records