Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa056…defd weather 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-36%) realized −$111 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate86%118W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$5
crypto 36% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -4.2% -13.3% 90% 12% -13.0%
≤30d 138 -8.2% -16.9% 86% 12% -49.1%
≤90d 138 -8.2% -16.9% 86% 12% -49.1%
all 138 -8.2% -16.9% 86% 12% -49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 12% -49.1%
10% -24.9% 1% -53.9%
15% -32.1% 1% -58.4%
20% -38.8% 1% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses118 / 20
Open positions46
Markets (closed)138 / 184
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16? No 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? No 88¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.80 · official $48.80 (match) · 318 history records