Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa053…130f sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$177 (-9%) realized +$1,308 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,179
7 days+$1,308
14 days+$1,308
30 days+$1,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1,346
other 25% −$39
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +33.5% +20.8% 54% 54% +71.1%
≤30d 13 +33.5% +20.8% 54% 54% +71.1%
≤90d 13 +33.5% +20.8% 54% 54% +71.1%
all 13 +33.5% +20.8% 54% 54% +71.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 54% +71.1%
10% +9.3% 54% +54.7%
15% -1.3% 54% +39.8%
20% -11.0% 54% +26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$93 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$1,308
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Yes 10¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $407 +$1,298 +319%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $130 +$170 +131%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 +$106 +160%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$98 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 34m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 34m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 35m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 35m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,334 37m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 37m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $371 44m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 48m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $300 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $29 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 30h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.47 · official $459.52 (match) · 44 history records