Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A0 0xa04e…b3e6 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$83 (+9%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$23
crypto 6% +$16
sports 4% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.2% -7.5% 38% 38% -10.3%
≤30d 9 +15.3% +4.3% 44% 44% -6.2%
≤90d 9 +15.3% +4.3% 44% 44% -6.2%
all 9 +15.3% +4.3% 44% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 44% -6.2%
10% -5.7% 44% -15.2%
15% -14.8% 22% -23.4%
20% -23.1% 22% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$32 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage19d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $205 −$75 -37%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$12 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$33 -32%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $102 −$31 -31%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $123 +$110 +90%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 +$28 +27%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $33 +$39 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $130 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $91 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $70 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $233 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $130 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 17h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $154 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 15d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records