Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa04d…482b other 85 markets active 1d ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$51
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$50
other 40% −$11
sports 10% +$4
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
politics 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.5% +75.1% 100% 100% +75.1%
≤30d 21 +4.5% -5.5% 33% 14% -8.2%
≤90d 30 +2.5% -7.2% 37% 10% -9.0%
all 82 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 6% -9.1%
10% -20.7% 4% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 2% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage475d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$10 +94%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $175 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $98 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $183 +$42 +23%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $382 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $236 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $178 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $270 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $128 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $108 −$3 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $526 +$2 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $128 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $128 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $12 −$4 -32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $131 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $147 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $11 $0 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $674 +$2 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $1 $0 -20%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $962 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $962 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $1,057 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,143 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $163 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 -16%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 23 $4 $0 +5%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 12 $22 −$4 -18%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $23 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $92 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $174 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $186 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $186 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $47 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $175 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $175 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $10 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $161 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $163 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $96 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 351 history records