Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A0 0xa04b…6698 sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,146 (+7%) realized +$1,176 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$623per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,111
14 days+$2,111
30 days+$2,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,068
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤30d 3 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤90d 5 -43.0% -48.5% 40% 40% -6.0%
all 26 +15.3% +4.3% 69% 69% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 69% -2.0%
10% -5.7% 50% -11.4%
15% -14.8% 35% -19.9%
20% -23.2% 23% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +61% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$423 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$3,594
Realized+$1,176
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage206d
Avg bet$623
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 63¢ 62¢ $3,624 $3,594 −$30 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $2,708 +$1,903 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $172 −$172 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2,620 +$380 +14%
Phoenix: Nuno Borges vs Marcos Giron Mar 30 $163 −$163 -100%
Cherbourg: Borna Gojo vs Pavel Kotov Mar 30 $1,666 −$1,666 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 13 $969 +$860 +89%
Magic vs. Wizards Feb 08 $314 −$314 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Feb 08 $698 −$698 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 29 $496 +$202 +41%
Pelicans vs. Thunder Jan 28 $762 +$124 +16%
Blackhawks vs. Capitals Jan 04 $210 −$210 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jan 03 $254 +$177 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jan 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Jan 02 $471 +$111 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Dec 31 $68 +$82 +122%
Blue Jackets vs. Senators Dec 30 $121 +$236 +194%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $21 +$66 +317%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 26 $217 +$102 +47%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 23 $212 +$26 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Dec 18 $155 +$55 +35%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $48 +$17 +35%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 07 $34 +$16 +49%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs The Huns Esports (BO1) Nov 25 $187 +$38 +20%
Nets vs. Raptors Nov 24 $238 +$42 +18%
San Jose State vs. San Diego State Nov 23 $198 +$47 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $5 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $13 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $4 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $97 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $1,025 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $50 39m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $616 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $924 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $100 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $57 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $772 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $76 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $435 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $46 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $41 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $117 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $400 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $242 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $23 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $619 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $182 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $233 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $94 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $199 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $165 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $7 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $114 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $7 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $2,499 4d
Cherbourg: Borna Gojo vs Pavel Kotov BUY Borna Gojo 57¢ $19 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,594.13 · official $3,594.13 (match) · 105 history records