Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa04a…c9c9 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$6
crypto 9% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage494d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $5,160 −$5 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 17 $55 $0 -1%
Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Baylor win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 91d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $24 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 121d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 148d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $3 180d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $39 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $34 211d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 240d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 271d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 272d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $32 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $9 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 392d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 395d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5,155 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.09 · official $48.09 (match) · 113 history records