Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa04a…fa0d sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,572 (-41%) realized −$2,403 · open −$169
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,520
other 32% −$1,234
crypto 7% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 41% -51.4%
≤30d 27 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 41% -51.4%
≤90d 27 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 41% -51.4%
all 27 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 41% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -51.4%
10% -25.1% 30% -56.0%
15% -32.3% 30% -60.3%
20% -38.9% 22% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$262 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$2,403
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $500 $331 −$169 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 +$231 +474%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $478 −$475 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$109 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $289 +$236 +82%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $487 −$475 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $434 −$43 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $825 −$554 -67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $194 +$439 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $193 +$229 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $48 +$27 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $53 +$10 +18%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $817 −$807 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$95 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 +$22 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,112 −$1,092 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $193 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $191 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $287 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $96 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $192 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $193 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $487 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 44¢ $392 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $272 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $777 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $49 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $48 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $386 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $193 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $194 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $48 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $288 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.25 · official $343.75 · 57 history records